James Wrisdale, Analyst and Macro Economist in the Asset Management Division of Goldman Sachs, joined the Brunel Business School MBA students last Wednesday with a presentation on “The BRICs and beyond”, a unique insight on today’s global market and a forecast for the next decades. The meeting was a part of ‘Let’s Talk Business’, a guest speakers series running throughout the MBA calendar.
Wrisdale works closely with Jim O’Neill, the eminent economist at Goldman Sachs who is well known for its thesis regarding emerging economies, and who coined the grouping acronyms BRIC and N-11. His talk presented the opportunities and challenges of the growth of the new economies to the global growth, forecasting the individual country contributions by decades, until the 2050.
His projections see the BRICs as the major drivers for economic growth in the next decades, positioning in the top largest economies over the next four decades together with the US. Major growths are also expected by some of the N-11 countries such as Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey. The presentation also showed data of the effects that this unprecedented growth of the emerging markets will have on consumer-related sectors. The expansion of the middle and high income classes in the BRICs will drive higher consumption particularly in the consumer durables, luxury goods and travel and tourism sectors.
This visit gave students an understanding of the growth market concept, and of the methodology used in forecast analysis. Goldman Sachs’ data are based on the assumptions that changes in the GDP expectations and in the valuation of the market are key when a judgment about future growth is being made. Mohamed Abdelkhalek commented: “The presentation was very useful to give us some interesting figures of the future global growth, and to see how the BRICs will be among the top countries. However, we have to consider that many other factors that play a crucial role in the global growth are not considered in this analysis”.
Article submitted by Flavia De Facendis, Brunel MBA Ambassador